WUNRN
ILO – International Labour Organization – UN
http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_336884/lang--en/index.htm
World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2015
“Almost
half of the world’s workers lack access to basic necessities and decent work,”
Ryder said. The situation is even worse for women.”
Unemployment on
the Rise over the Next 5 Years as Inequality Persists - Gender
ILO
report says sluggish jobs recovery and social instability are the result of
greater inequality.
Direct
Link to Full 103-Page ILO 2015 Report: http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_337069.pdf
News
| 20 January 2015
Where will unemployment be the highest over the next five
years? GENEVA (ILO News) – Unemployment will continue to rise
in the coming years, as the global economy has entered a new period combining
slower growth, widening inequalities and turbulence, warns a new ILO
report.
By 2019, more than 212 million people will be out of work, up from the current
201 million, according to the World Employment
and Social Outlook – Trends 2015 (WESO).
“More than 61 million jobs have been lost since the start of the global crisis
in 2008 and our projections show that unemployment will continue to rise until
the end of the decade. This means the jobs crisis is far from over so there is
no place for complacency,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.
The employment situation has improved in the United States and Japan, but
remains difficult in a number of advanced economies, particularly in Europe.
Vulnerable employment
Two
regions, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, accounted for three quarters of the
world’s vulnerable employment. East Asia is among the regions that are likely
to make the biggest dent in vulnerable employment, which is expected to be
reduced in the region from 50.2 per cent in 2007 to 38.9 per cent in
2019.
The employment situation has not improved much in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite
better economic growth performance. And in the Arab region and parts of Latin
America and the Caribbean the employment outlook has deteriorated.
The steep decline in oil and gas prices, if sustained, may improve the
employment outlook somewhat in many advanced economies and several Asian
countries according to some forecasts. By contrast, it will hit labour markets
hard in major oil and gas producing countries, notably in Latin America, Africa
and the Arab region.
Young workers aged 15-24 are particularly hit by the crisis, with a global
youth unemployment rate of almost 13 per cent in 2014 and a further increase
expected in coming years. By contrast, older workers have fared relatively well
since the start of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Middle classes in developing countries on
the rise
In
developing countries, the middle class now makes up more than 34 per cent of
total employment. The biggest progress has been in emerging and low-income
countries.
“The good news is that the number of workers in vulnerable jobs and working
poverty has fallen around the globe. However, it is still not acceptable that
almost half of the world’s workers lack access to basic necessities and decent
work,” Ryder said. “The situation is even worse for women.”
Income inequality, unemployment and
social unrest
Growing
and persistent inequality and uncertain prospects for enterprise investment,
the report explains, has made it difficult for countries to rebound from the
crisis.
“If low wages lead people to consume less, and investment remains subdued, this
obviously has a negative impact on growth. Income inequality in some advanced
economies now approach levels observed among emerging economies. By contrast,
the emerging economies made some progress in reducing their high levels of
inequality,” said the ILO head.
The report says income inequality will continue to widen, with the richest 10
per cent earning 30 to 40 per cent of total income while the poorest 10 per
cent will earn between 2 and 7 per cent of total income.
These trends have undermined trust in governments and kept the risk of social
unrest high, the report warns. Social unrest is particularly acute in countries
and regions where youth unemployment is high or rising rapidly.
In line with the global unemployment rate, social unrest shot up since the
beginning of the crisis in 2008, and has now reached levels almost 10 per cent
higher than before the crisis.
Only developed economies and countries in South-East Asia and the Pacific
region have seen a reduction in social unrest – after peaks before or around
the global crisis. But even there, levels of social unrest are significantly
above historical averages.
Challenges ahead
Structural
factors shaping the world of work, such as a declining labour supply – due in
part to an aging population in many parts of the world – have subdued global
economic growth, according to the report.
Other factors include major shifts in demand for skills. At the global level,
the share of both low-skilled, non-routine jobs, such as security personnel and
some personal care workers, and high-skilled non-routine cognitive jobs, such
as lawyers and software engineers, has increased. By contrast, routine
middle-skilled jobs – like book-keepers and clerical workers – are declining.
“The trends we see are worrying but we can improve the overall economic picture
if we tackle underlying weaknesses, in particular the continued lack of
aggregate demand, stagnation in the Eurozone, uncertain prospects for
productive investment, especially among small enterprises, and mounting
inequality,” said Ryder.