WUNRN
http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/01/humanitys-future-below-replacement-fertility/
Humanity’s Future – Below
Replacement Fertility?
A mother
and her children, part of the indigenous Hmong group, in Sin Chai, northwestern
Viet Nam. The general trend in world fertility rates shows they are in decline
- due to a combination of factors, including economic development and the
improved social role of women. Credit: UN Photo/Kibae Park
By Joseph Chamie, a former
Director of the United Nations Population Division.
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 15 2015 (IPS) - Is below
replacement level fertility the future for humanity? The answer to this
seemingly simple question regarding human reproduction is not only of
considerable demographic concern, but also has enormous social, economic and
environmental consequences for the planet.
Aside
from a global mortality catastrophe, the future size of the world’s population
is determined basically by the number of children women bear. If the average
number of births per woman remains more than about two, world population
continues to increase.
However,
if women on average have less than two births, then world population eventually
decreases. A fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman under low mortality
conditions is the replacement level, which over time results in population
stabilisation.
Throughout
most of human history women bore many children. In addition to offsetting high
rates of infant and child mortality, a large number of children provided
valuable assistance, needed labour and personal meaning to rural households as
well as old-age support to parents.
At
the beginning of the 20th century average global fertility was still about six
births per woman. By 1950 world fertility had declined slightly to five births
per woman, with less than a handful of countries having rates below the
replacement level (Figure 1).
Source:
United Nations Population Division
At
that time, most of the largest countries, such as Brazil, China, Egypt, India,
Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey, had rates of six or more births per
woman. In addition, 29 countries, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Dominican
Republic, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Rwanda, Philippines,
Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria and Yemen, had average fertility rates of seven or
more births per woman.
As
a result of the high fertility rates and comparatively low death rates, world
population grew very rapidly during the 20th century, especially in the second
half. World population nearly quadrupled during the past century, an
unprecedented demographic phenomenon, increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion.
Also
during the past 50 years, historic declines in fertility rates occurred,
resulting in a halving of the world’s average rate to 2.5 births per woman.
Those remarkable fertility declines are unequivocal and widespread, with lower
rates in virtually every country.
In
1950, 101 countries, or 44 percent of world population, had a fertility rate of
six or more births per woman. Today 12 countries – with all but two in
sub-Saharan Africa, representing five percent of world population – have a
fertility rate of six or more births per woman.
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In
addition, the transition from high fertility to below replacement levels took
place in all European countries as well as in Australia, Canada, Japan, New
Zealand and the United States. The transition to below replacement fertility
also occurred across a broad and diverse range of developing countries,
including Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Iran, Lebanon, South Korea, Singapore,
Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam. In sum, 75 countries, or close to half of the
world’s population, are experiencing fertility rates below the replacement
level (Figure 1).
With
regard to future fertility levels, two key questions stand out. First, will
countries with below replacement fertility remain at those levels? And second,
in the coming decades will the remaining 126 countries also end up with below
replacement fertility?
While
future fertility rebounds cannot be ruled out, the general pattern over the
last five decades has been unmistakable: once fertility falls below the
replacement level, it tends to stay there. That trend has especially been the
case for the many countries where fertility has fallen below 1.6 births per
woman, such as Canada, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Russia.
Some
countries consider sustained below replacement fertility as a threat to their
economies and societies and have attempted to return to at least the
replacement level through various pro-natalist policies, programmes and
incentives, including reduced taxes, subsidised care for children and bonuses.
However, such government attempts have by and large not achieved their
objectives.
The
forces that brought about declines in fertility to historic lows are widely
recognised and include lower mortality rates, increased urbanisation,
widespread education, improvements in the status of women, availability of
modern contraceptives and delayed marriage and childbearing.
Other
important factors include the costs of childrearing, employment and economic
independence of women, divorce and separation, the decline of marriage,
co-habitation, childless lifestyles and the need to save for longer years of
retirement and elder care. Those forces and factors are likely to continue and
become increasingly widespread globally.
According
to United Nations medium-variant population projections, by mid-century the
number of countries with below replacement fertility is expected to nearly
double, reaching 139 countries (Figure 1). Together those countries will
account for 75 percent of the world’s population at that time.
Some
of the populous countries expected to fall below the replacement fertility
level by 2050 include Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and
Turkey. Looking further into the future, below replacement fertility is
expected in 184 countries by the end of the century, with the global fertility
rate falling below two births per woman (Figure 1).
It
is certainly difficult to imagine rapid transitions to low fertility in today’s
high-fertility countries, such as Chad, Mali, Niger and Nigeria, where average
rates are more than six births per woman. However, rapid transitions from high
to low fertility levels have happened in diverse social, economic and political
settings.
With
social and economic development, including those forces favouring low
fertility, and the changing lifestyles of women and men, the transition to
below replacement fertility in nearly all the remaining countries with high
birth rates may well occur in the coming decades of the 21st century.
Source: United Nations Population Division
At
that time, most of the largest countries, such as Brazil, China, Egypt, India,
Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey, had rates of six or more births per
woman. In addition, 29 countries, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Dominican
Republic, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Rwanda, Philippines,
Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria and Yemen, had average fertility rates of seven or
more births per woman.
As
a result of the high fertility rates and comparatively low death rates, world
population grew very rapidly during the 20th century, especially in the second
half. World population nearly quadrupled during the past century, an
unprecedented demographic phenomenon, increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion.
Also
during the past 50 years, historic declines in fertility rates occurred,
resulting in a halving of the world’s average rate to 2.5 births per woman.
Those remarkable fertility declines are unequivocal and widespread, with lower
rates in virtually every country.
In
1950, 101 countries, or 44 percent of world population, had a fertility rate of
six or more births per woman. Today 12 countries – with all but two in
sub-Saharan Africa, representing five percent of world population – have a
fertility rate of six or more births per woman.
In
addition, the transition from high fertility to below replacement levels took
place in all European countries as well as in Australia, Canada, Japan, New
Zealand and the United States. The transition to below replacement fertility
also occurred across a broad and diverse range of developing countries,
including Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Iran, Lebanon, South Korea, Singapore,
Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam. In sum, 75 countries, or close to half of the
world’s population, are experiencing fertility rates below the replacement
level (Figure 1).
With
regard to future fertility levels, two key questions stand out. First, will
countries with below replacement fertility remain at those levels? And second,
in the coming decades will the remaining 126 countries also end up with below
replacement fertility?
While
future fertility rebounds cannot be ruled out, the general pattern over the
last five decades has been unmistakable: once fertility falls below the
replacement level, it tends to stay there. That trend has especially been the
case for the many countries where fertility has fallen below 1.6 births per
woman, such as Canada, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Russia.
Some
countries consider sustained below replacement fertility as a threat to their
economies and societies and have attempted to return to at least the
replacement level through various pro-natalist policies, programmes and
incentives, including reduced taxes, subsidised care for children and bonuses.
However, such government attempts have by and large not achieved their objectives.
The
forces that brought about declines in fertility to historic lows are widely
recognised and include lower mortality rates, increased urbanisation,
widespread education, improvements in the status of women, availability of
modern contraceptives and delayed marriage and childbearing.
Other
important factors include the costs of childrearing, employment and economic
independence of women, divorce and separation, the decline of marriage,
co-habitation, childless lifestyles and the need to save for longer years of
retirement and elder care. Those forces and factors are likely to continue and
become increasingly widespread globally.
According
to United Nations medium-variant population projections, by mid-century the
number of countries with below replacement fertility is expected to nearly
double, reaching 139 countries (Figure 1). Together those countries will
account for 75 percent of the world’s population at that time.
Some
of the populous countries expected to fall below the replacement fertility level
by 2050 include Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey.
Looking further into the future, below replacement fertility is expected in 184
countries by the end of the century, with the global fertility rate falling
below two births per woman (Figure 1).
It
is certainly difficult to imagine rapid transitions to low fertility in today’s
high-fertility countries, such as Chad, Mali, Niger and Nigeria, where average
rates are more than six births per woman. However, rapid transitions from high
to low fertility levels have happened in diverse social, economic and political
settings.
With
social and economic development, including those forces favouring low
fertility, and the changing lifestyles of women and men, the transition to
below replacement fertility in nearly all the remaining countries with high
birth rates may well occur in the coming decades of the 21st century.