WUNRN
RUSSIA – DEMOGRAPHICS & WOMEN – LOW BIRTHRATE, AGEING
POPULATION & HIGH MALE MORTALITY, HEALTH CRISIS, SINKING RUBLE, EMIGRATION
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http://news.yahoo.com/photos/koc04-moscow-russian-federation-13-12-2014-elderly-photo-140948962.html
Moscow (Russian Federation), 13/12/2014.- Elderly women sell homemade pickles and jams on the street in Moscow, Russia, 13 December 2014. Street markets and private sales as such are usually prohibited by the authorities but it is an option for the women to improve their pensions which are at an average of 11,500 Rubles (164 Euro) per month in Russia. (Rusia, Moscú) EFE/EPA/YURI KOCHETKOV
Russian Ruble Sinks to New Lows:
http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-ruble-sinks-to-new-lows/26747030.html
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Yale Global Online
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/russian-demographics-perfect-storm
Russian Demographics: The Perfect Storm –
WOMEN of Russia
One measure of an economically secure homeland is women’s willingness to
raise children with the expectation of opportunities for good health, education
and livelihoods. On that front, Russia confronts a perfect storm – as fertility
rates plummeted to 1.2 births per women in the late 1990s and now stand at 1.7
births per women. “Russia’s population will most likely decline in the coming
decades, perhaps reaching an eventual size in 2100 that’s similar to its 1950
level of around 100 million,” write demographers Joseph Chamie and Barry Mirkin.
The country has high mortality rates due to elevated rates of smoking, alcohol
consumption and obesity. Investment on healthcare is low. Over the next decade,
Russia's labor force is expected to shrink by about 15 percent. Other countries
with low fertility rates turn to immigration to pick up the slack. While
immigrants make up about 8 percent of Russia’s population, the nation has a
reputation for nationalism and xenophobia, and fertility rates are even lower
in neighboring Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, all possible sources of
immigration. – YaleGlobal
High Mortality, Low Fertility and Emigration of the
Well-Educated Are Shrinking Russia
Joseph Chamie and Barry Mirkin - YaleGlobal, 11 December 2014
NEW
YORK: So much attention is focused on the Russian Federation’s plummeting
ruble, evaporating investments and looming recession, following its land grab
in Crimea and intervention in Ukraine that most are overlooking the perfect
storm brewing within Russia’s borders: its demography.
The
perfect demographic storm of comparatively high mortality, low fertility and
emigration of well-educated professionals is increasingly burdening Russian
society and its deteriorating economy. In addition to a shrinking labor force,
mounting costs for its aging population and troubling premature deaths,
especially among men, Russia is facing difficulties in filling critical jobs
with largely unskilled non-Russian migrants, many working illegally in the
country.
Russia -
Wanted: babies, not immigrants: Russia’s then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
holds a Russian baby (top); illegal immigrants serve a useful purpose, but are
not welcome.
Throughout most of the second half of the 20th century, Russia’s population
increased. Whereas the Russian population was slightly more than 100 million in
1950, it peaked at nearly 149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the
population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million.
The shrinking population is the result of deaths outnumbering births for
nearly two decades without sufficient immigration to compensate for the
deficit. The increasing number of deaths reflects the persistence of
comparatively high mortality. The decreasing number of births is due to the
prevailing low fertility, which plummeted to 1.2 births per woman in the late
1990s and now hovers at 1.7 births per woman. That rate is still about 20
percent below 2.1 births per woman, the level necessary to ensure population
replacement.
High rates of smoking, alcohol consumption, drug use, HIV/AIDS,
tuberculosis, obesity, heart disease, violence, suicide and environmental
pollution contribute to Russians’ poor health. Russia’s current male life
expectancy at birth of 64 years is 15 years lower than male life expectancies
in Germany, Italy and Sweden.
|
Russia’s
male life expectancy at birth is 64 years – 15 years lower than that in
Germany or Italy. |
Russia also stands out for the gap between male and female life
expectancies at birth; at almost 13 years, it is one of the widest sex
differentials. Moreover, the life expectancy at birth of 74 years for Russian
females compares unfavorably with other developed countries, such as 80 years
for Polish females.
Policies to address the health crisis are woefully inadequate. Russia’s
periodic crackdown on alcohol consumption has had limited effect. About 700,000
Russians were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in 2013, a 5 percent
increase over the previous year. With official policy forbidding opioid
substitution and therapy services for drug users, HIV prevalence among Russians
who inject drugs is between 18 and 31 percent.
In most European countries, where coverage of needle programs and opioid
substitution therapy is high, HIV/AIDS prevalence among drug users is lower,
under 17 percent. To curb smoking, estimated at 40 percent of the adult
population, Russia now bans smoking in public places. In terms of health
expenditure per capita, Russia ranks near the bottom among OECD countries –
spending $1,474 in 2012, compared with the OECD average of $3,484.
Notwithstanding a recent fertility uptick, low fertility persists due to
inadequate reproductive health services, lack of modern and low-cost
contraceptives, widespread and unsafe abortions, infertility, fewer women of
childbearing age, changing attitudes toward marriage and voluntary
childlessness. In addition, Russia’s abortion rate, estimated at two abortions
for every birth, has traditionally been the highest in the world.
|
The
government pays families for birth or adoption of a second child – and considers
a tax on childlessness. |
Another factor mitigating against higher fertility is Russia’s high divorce
rate. In 2012, for every two marriages, there was one divorce. To counter these
trends, the government has sought to promote childbearing through various
measures. For example, Russian families are entitled to a certificate for
429,408 rubles, $12,500, after the birth or adoption of a second child.
In 2013 the government was deliberating on whether to boost the divorce tax
as a means of discouraging divorce and promoting family values. The protection
of children and traditional family values was also the stated purpose for the
enactment of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender propaganda law to prevent
distribution of "non-traditional sexual relationships" ideas among
minors. The government is also considering reinstatement of a tax on
childlessness, estimated at 10 percent of women in their late 40s.
Despite being home to the world’s second largest immigrant population, 11
million migrants or 8 percent of the total population, this inflow has not
compensated for Russia’s population losses. These migrants, mostly from the
impoverished former Soviet republics are often poorly educated and thus tend to
have low paying jobs, which ethnic Russians are loathe to accept. Many migrants
are from the former Central Asian Republics and the Caucasus, especially
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, and thus differ in religion, ethnicity
and language from the ethnic Russian population.
|
|
|
Scenarios:
Russia's future depends on fertility and, for now, a population increase
seems unlikely (Source: UN Population Division) |
Furthermore, over a third of these migrants, or some 4 million, reside
unlawfully in the country and live under constant threat of harassment and
deportation. The issue of illegal immigration has become so politicized that it
has inflamed xenophobia and Russian ultra-nationalism, spawning numerous
anti-immigration groups.
More recently, some 800,000 people, many ethnically Russian, were uprooted
by the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine and have poured across the border into
Russia, with various forms of status. In some cases, they receive government
subsidies, as well as being relocated to other regions across Russia.
Additional arrivals from Ukraine are likely, given continuing instability in
the area.
Russia’s immigration policy has focused on attracting highly skilled
workers from abroad, but has fallen short of its goals. Migrant labor is
considered essential to counter the steep decline in Russia’s working-age
population, expected to decline by 25 percent by mid-century.
Russia’s aging population has placed strains on the economy that will
impact numerous sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, the armed forces
and retirement schemes. In the next decade, Russia's labor force is expected to
shrink by more than 12 million, or around 15 percent.
The contraction of Russia’s labor force is exacerbated by low retirement
ages: 60 for men and 55 for women. In certain situations, for example, hazardous
occupations or unemployment, retirement ages are lower. Nevertheless, Russia’s
older population does not fare well. According to a 2014 global survey of the
social and economic well-being of older people, Russia ranked 65 among 96
countries.
The future size of Russia may follow a number of scenarios, largely
determined by fertility (Figure 1). For example, if fertility remained
essentially constant, not an unreasonable assumption, the Russian population
would fall to around 111 million by mid-century and 67 million by 2100. Such an
outcome would mean that the Russian population would be less than half of its
current size by the close of the 21st century.