By Gretchen
Livingston and D’Vera Cohn
Full
21-Page 2012 Report:
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2012/11/Birth_Rate_Final.pdf
Overview
The U.S. birth rate dipped in 2011 to the lowest ever recorded, led
by a plunge in births to immigrant women since the onset of the Great
Recession.
The
overall U.S. birth rate, which is the annual number of births per 1,000
women in the prime childbearing ages of 15 to 44, declined 8% from 2007 to
2010. The birth rate for U.S.-born women decreased 6% during these years, but
the birth rate for foreign-born women plunged 14%—more than it had declined
over the entire 1990-2007 period.1 The
birth rate for Mexican immigrant women fell even more, by 23%.
Final 2011 data are
not available, but according to preliminary data from the National
Center for Health Statistics, the overall birth rate in 2011 was
63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age. That rate is the lowest since at
least 1920, the earliest year for which there are reliable numbers.2 The
overall U.S. birth rate peaked most recently in the Baby Boom years,
reaching 122.7 in 1957, nearly double today’s rate. The birth rate sagged
through the mid-1970s but stabilized at 65-70 births per 1,000 women for most
years after that before falling again after 2007, the beginning of the Great
Recession.
In addition to the
birth rate decline, the number of U.S. births, which had been rising since
2002, fell abruptly after 2007—a decrease also led by immigrant women. From
2007 to 2010, the overall number of births declined 7%, pulled down by a 13%
drop in births to immigrants and a relatively modest 5% decline in births to
U.S.-born women.
Despite
the recent decline, foreign-born mothers continue to give birth to a
disproportionate share of the nation’s newborns, as they have for at least the
past two decades. The 23% share of all births to foreign-born mothers in 2010
was higher than the 13% immigrant share of the U.S. population, and higher than the 17% share of women ages
15-44 who are immigrants. The 2010 birth rate for foreign-born women (87.8) was
nearly 50% higher than the rate for U.S.-born women (58.9).
Total
U.S. births in 2010 were 4.0 million—roughly 3.1 million to
U.S.-born women and 930,000 to immigrant women. In 2011, according to
preliminary data, there were 3.95 million total births.
The
recent downturn in births to immigrant women reversed a trend in which
foreign-born mothers accounted for a rising share of U.S. births. In 2007, births to foreign-born mothers accounted
for 25% of U.S. births, compared with 16% in 1990. That share decreased to
23% in 2010.
The fall in the
number of births to immigrant women is explained by behavior (falling birth
rates), rather than population composition (change in the number of women of
childbearing age), according to a Pew Research analysis. Despite a recent drop
in unauthorized immigration from Mexico, the largest source country for U.S. immigrants, the Pew Research analysis found no decline in
the number of foreign-born women of childbearing age.3
This
report does not address the reasons that women had fewer births after 2007, but
a previous Pew Research analysis4
concluded that the recent fertility decline is closely linked to economic
distress. States with the largest economic declines from 2007 to 2008, as shown
by six major indicators, were most likely to experience relatively large
fertility declines from 2008 to 2009, the analysis found.
Both
foreign- and U.S.-born Hispanic women had larger birth rate declines from 2007
to 2010 than did other groups. Hispanics also had larger percentage declines in
household wealth than white, black or Asian households from 2005 to 2009.5 Poverty
and unemployment also grew more sharply for Latinos than for non-Latinos after
the Great Recession began, and most Hispanics say that the economic downturn
was harder on them than on other groups.6
Looking
back a century, data about very young children provide evidence about earlier
trends.7 The
share of U.S.-born children younger than age 2 with foreign-born mothers was
about as high during the wave of immigration in the early 1900s (21%) as it is
now. By 1960, after four decades of restrictions on immigration, that share had
plummeted to a low of only 4%. It inched up to 6% by 1970 before rising rapidly
as immigration levels increased due mainly to federal legislation passed in
1965.
Population
projections from the Pew Research Center indicate
that immigrants will continue to play a large role in U.S. population growth. The projections indicate that
immigrants arriving since 2005 and their descendants will account for fully 82%
of U.S. population growth by 2050.8 Even if
the lower immigration influx of recent years continues, new immigrants and
their descendants are still projected to account for most of the nation’s
population increase by mid-century.
Among
this report’s other major findings:
- A
majority of births to U.S.-born women (66%) in 2010 were to white mothers
(although that share was smaller than in 1990, when it was 72%), while the
majority of births to foreign-born women (56%) were to Hispanic mothers.
- Teen
mothers account for a higher share of births to U.S.-born women (11% in
2010) than to foreign-born women (5%), in part because of the age profile
of immigrants.
- Mothers
ages 35 and older account for a higher share of births to immigrants (21%
in 2010) than to the U.S. born (13%). In fact, immigrants accounted for fully
33% of births to women ages 35 and older in 2010.
About This Report
This
report uses data for 1990 to 2010 from the National
Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau to analyze and
compare fertility patterns of foreign-born and U.S.-born women. The report
consists of an overview and section on overall trends; births by the race,
ethnicity and national origin of mothers; births by age of mothers; and births
by marital status of mothers. Appendix A provides details on methodology and
data analysis. Appendix B includes additional tables.
This
report was written by Gretchen Livingston, senior demographer, and D’Vera Cohn,
senior writer, of the Pew Research
Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project. Editorial
guidance was provided by Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research
Center and director of its Social & Demographic Trends
project. Guidance also was provided by Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer, and
Kim Parker, senior researcher, both of the Pew Research
Center. Charts were prepared by Eileen Patten and Seth Motel, research assistants. Number-checking was done by Motel
and Patten. The report was copy-edited by Marcia Kramer.
Terminology
All
references to whites, blacks and Asians are to the non-Hispanic components of
those populations. Asians also include Pacific Islanders.
“U.S.
born” and “native born” refer to people born in the 50 states or District of Columbia. “Foreign born” and “immigrant” are used interchangeably.
In keeping with the practice of the National Center
for Health Statistics, women born in Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories are included with the foreign born. See
Methodology for more details.
Unless
otherwise specified, “teens” refers to those ages 10 to 19.
In
references to marital status, “married” includes those who are separated.
1. The 2011
data do not include birthplace of mothers, so do not permit analysis of births
to U.S.-born and immigrant mothers.
2. Brady E. Hamilton,
Joyce A. Martin and Stephanie J. Ventura, “Births: Preliminary Data for 2011,”
National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 61, No. 5, Oct. 3, 2012.
3. See
Jeffrey Passel et al., “Net Migration From Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less,”
Pew Hispanic
Center, May 3, 2012.
4. See
Gretchen Livingston, “In a Down Economy, Fewer Births,” Pew
Social & Demographic Trends, Oct. 12, 2011.
5. See Rakesh
Kochhar et al., “Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks
and Hispanics,” Pew Social & Demographic Trends, July 26,
2011.
6. See Paul
Taylor et al., “Hispanics Say They Have the Worst of a Bad Economy,”
Pew Hispanic
Center, Jan. 26, 2012.
7. Complete
national-level historical birth data including mother's nativity status are not
available.
8. See
Jeffrey Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050,”
Pew Social & Demographic Trends, Feb. 11, 2008.